Futuregazing…

26 Aug

IDC also forecast that Google’s Android platform, which will own 81.1 percent of the smartphone space in 2015, will retain the same share through 2019. Apple’s iOS share is expected to end 2015 at 15.6 percent, but ultimately fall to 14.2 percent in 2019 as Microsoft’s Windows platform steals some share and rises from 2.6 percent this year to 3.6 percent in 2019.

With this in mind, why do so many people believe Apple are still the number one player?

Partially that’s because Apple make more money out of smartphones than anyone else, and partly because per user more apps are sold on iOS.

Android is still the biggest Market for eyeballs though, and that’s worth remembering.

For what it’s worth, If I weren’t into app development with a Java history I’d be more tempted to get an iPhone than an Android device.

Then again I don’t own either as I’m still captivated by Windows Phone, and more recently Mobile 10. I find the figure of 3.6% by 2019 likely, but two things come into play here which I think get overlooked:

  1. Despite the FUD, Windows 10 looks set to be adopted in the enterprise, unlike Windows 8.x. That offers a lot of potential for the Universal Windows App strategy.
  2. … Which in turn may end up pushing addition of Windows Mobile.

Is the game over for Windows on the phone? I don’t know, ask Nokia and their Symbian partners, Blackberry or Palm. Of course the Market is more mature now so its a different ball game, but history has a habit of repeating itself. Who saw tablets becoming such a hit after Microsoft’s failed attempts?

The post PC world was also a certainty too, but look what has happened there. The tablet market is shrinking as devices become more mature, and now the growth area is 2 in 1 devices like the Surface and the many alternatives.

This is partially good news for Microsoft (but also for Android and other players), which in turn could also drive Windows 10 adoption, etc.

But increasingly the OS is becoming less important… isn’t it?

Possibly for many situations, especially as services become cross platform or cloud hosted. But just like Windows Phone which is brilliant until the app you need isn’t available, there are always exceptions that make the OS as relevant now as ever.

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